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04/29/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The light loads have been taken care of. Now, the top- seeded Cleveland Cavaliers and the veteran-laded Boston Celtics are preparing to do some heavy lifting, as the teams meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals in a rematch from two years ago when the Celtics survived in seven games on their way to the NBA championship.
Both clubs finished off their opening round opponents this year in just five games, as Cleveland dispensed of Central Division rival Chicago, while the Celtics sent the Miami Heat back to South Beach.
With the 4-1 series victory over Chicago, Cleveland reached the East semifinals for a fifth straight season. The Celtics, meanwhile, are toiling in the semis for a third consecutive year.
The Cavs suffered a bit of a scare in their Game 5 clincher. Superstar LeBron James had to fight through a right elbow injury as he narrowly missed his second straight triple-double in the set. By the end of the game, James was shooting a free throw using his left hand.
"I've never had a problem with my elbow before," James said. "Probably minor stuff in the past. I don't know exactly when it happened. I can't figure it out, but it's been going on for a few weeks. Hopefully it doesn't continue to bother me as we continue to move on in the postseason."
X-Rays and an MRI, as well as an examination on Wednesday night revealed James strained the elbow and also has a bone bruise of his olecranon. He is scheduled to undergo daily treatments and a repeat MRI will be performed next week. It is not anticipated that James will miss any playing time.
The Celtics, meanwhile, had no trouble closing out their first round set on Tuesday when Ray Allen hit 5-of-6 from behind the arc and scored a team-high 24 points to help the Celtics to a 96-86 Game 5 victory at TD Garden.
"We get a couple of days rest before we move on to the next round," the Celtics' Paul Pierce said. "Ray just played great throughout the series."
The Cavs and Celtics split four games in the regular season and this will be the fifth playoff meeting between the two clubs dating back to the 1975-76 season when Boston won the Eastern Conference finals over the Cavs in six games.
The C's also won a first round series over Cleveland in 1984-85, and a seven- game set in the East semis in 2007-08. The Cavs only win in the postseason over Boston came in the East semifinals during the 1991-92 season, also a seven-game set.
MATCHUPS:
POINT GUARD: Cavs point guard Mo Williams didn't play to his All-Star level of a season ago but he remains an unselfish player that can stretch a defense with his three-point shot and carry the offensive load if James is not firing on all cylinders. Williams also had a strong first round series against the Bulls, averaging 15.6 points and 5.2 assists, while shooting 13-33 (.394) from three-point range.
Williams' counterpart is the ultra-quick Rajon Rondo. Everyone harps on the lack of a top-tier jump shot when talking about the Kentucky product but the guy nearly averaged a triple-double in last year's postseason and that's Oscar Robertson territory. Rondo scored 14.8 ppg and dished out 10.2 assists against the Heat and also contributed 6.2 rebounds. His ability to get on the boards will likely show up against Williams while his floor game and decision making improves on a daily basis. The book on Rondo is simple, sag off him and make him take that suspect jumper but that's easier said than done.
EDGE: CELTICS
SHOOTING GUARD: Allen is one of the purest shooters to ever play the game and the veteran guard is showing no signs of slowing down, especially in the postseason. Allen torched the Heat for 19.4 ppg and shot an impressive 52.4 percent from the floor. His marksmanship was even better from beyond the arc, where he nailed 19-of-36 in the set, good for 52.8 percent. The sweet-stroking Allen still can come off the screen like few others, has a lightning-quick trigger and is not afraid to take the big shot. Although aging, Allen is also an underrated defender.
The Cavs' two-man, Anthony Parker, is more of a role player. An underrated offseason acquisition by Cavs' basketball chief Danny Ferry, the former Raptor is never going to fill it up, but his ability to knock down the three from the weak-side really helps space the floor for James.
EDGE: CELTICS
CENTER: Shaquille O'Neal had not played since late February due to a thumb injury suffered against the Celtics so Cavs coach Mike Brown eased the Big Aristotle back to action in the first round. O'Neal averaged just over 20 minutes a game against the Bulls but showed some signs in Game 5, compiling 14 points on 7-of-9 (.778) shooting and eight rebounds in 26 minutes. While O'Neal is certainly not the MVP-caliber player he was in his prime, you know he's not going to shrink on the big stage. O'Neal is playing in his 16th postseason and has toiled in 208 playoff games, which is first among active players.
Kendrick Perkins certainly has fresher legs than Shaq but doesn't have quickness or athleticism to give him as many headaches as Joakim Noah did. That said, Perkins has surpassed Kevin Garnett as the Celtics' best rebounder and is an upper-echelon shot blocker. He has also developed enough of an offensive game to do a nice job on put-back garbage points. He did struggle against Miami, however, averaging just 5.8 ppg and committing a team-high 16 turnovers.
EDGE: CAVS
SMALL FORWARD: Where do you start describing James and just how good he has become?
In leading Cleveland to the franchise's first ever postseason series win over Chicago, LeBron had a series to remember by averaging 31.8 points on a sizzling 55-of-97 (.562) from the floor. The reigning MVP also hit 13-of-24 from long distance and contributed 9.2 rebounds, 8.2 assists, 2.4 blocks and 1.2 steals per game. He became only third player in NBA history to average at least 30.0 points, 9.0 rebounds and 8.0 assists in a playoff series, joining Oscar Robertson (1963 versus Boston - 33.4 ppg, 12.4 rpg, 8.6 apg over seven games) and Michael Jordan (1989 versus New York - 35.7 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 8.3 apg over six games).
Meanwhile, for his postseason career, James (1,920 points, 542 rebounds, 477 assists) is the only player in NBA history to accumulate at least 1,900 points, 525 rebounds and 475 assists in his first 65 career postseason games. James' overall career average of 29.5 points per playoff game is the highest amongst any player competing in the 2009 NBA Playoffs and third all-time, behind only Allen Iverson (29.7 ppg) and Michael Jordan (33.4 ppg).
James has been the game's best player by a wide margin again this season and figures to easily win his second straight MVP award. He sat the last four games of the regular season to rest but wasn't rusty at all against Chicago and it's hard to imagine the aged C's, who allowed him to score 36.5 ppg in the regular season series, slowing down James for any considerable length of time.
The only perceived weakness in LeBron's game is the lack of a consistent, top- tier jumper but when that's falling like it was against the Bulls, forget about it.
Boston counters with its own All-Star and go-to-guy in Pierce. The 2008 NBA Finals MVP was once again the team's leading scorer and "The Truth" is also one of the game's best finishers and a very underrated defender. Pierce's vaunted body control also enables him to draw fouls at a breakneck pace, enabling him to march to the foul line again and again but let's face it, he's not winning this matchup.
EDGE: CAVS
POWER FORWARD: In his first playoff series as a Cavalier, Antawn Jamison was very good, compiling two double-doubles and averaging 19.4 points and 7.4 rebounds. He also corrected his troubling free throw problem by connecting on 80.0 percent from the line. However, Jamison was matched up with rookie Taj Gibson in the Chicago series and will now have Garnett in front of him.
Garnett is simply one of the best power forwards of all-time. He's clearly on the downside of a spectacular career and I'm not sure Garnett is going to find the Fountain of Youth in the postseason but he surely has enough left in his bag of tricks to make things difficult for a player like Jamison, who can be inconsistent.
EDGE: CELTICS
BENCH: Brown has some impressive options in former starters Anderson Varejao, Delonte West, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Jamario Moon, along with solid backcourt contributors Boobie Gibson and Sebastian Telfair. No team in the NBA can match what Brown is bringing off his bench. West, Varejao and Moon got most of the minutes against Chicago but Brown has the luxury of calling any of their numbers and expecting production. Varejao's energy figures to be a very big problem for Boston.
Doc Rivers mixed and matched his bench all year but has seemed to settle on Big Baby Davis and Tony Allen along with veterans Rasheed Wallace and Michael Finley for the postseason. Davis provides offense inside but will face an especially testy crowd at The Q since he was the one who whacked O'Neal's thumb, putting the big man on the shelf for two months. Allen will be expected to chase James for long periods of time, while Wallace and Finley aren't going to be consistent at this stage of the game but can step up and hurt you at key moments.
EDGE: CAVS
COACH: Brown doesn't get a lot of credit since he is expected to win but he's done a solid job of massaging egos around James and fitting the pieces together. In his five seasons as head coach of the Cavaliers, Brown has recorded the best regular season and postseason winning percentage of any coach in the team's 40-year history. That said, he will never be considered an upper echelon-coach until he brings home the Lawrence O'Brien trophy.
Rivers has never been regarded as a great X's and O's coach but he has done a wonderful job melding the egos of three superstars, and managing personalities may be the most important job of an NBA coach.
EDGE: EVEN
PREDICTION: Home court should be the difference in this matchup. The Cavs have won 12 of their last 13 postseason games at The Q and, since the 2006 postseason Cleveland is 25-7 (.781) as the host, which is the second most home wins in the playoffs over that span (Los Angeles Lakers are 26-5). Meanwhile, the Celtics are just 8-14 against Cleveland since the 2004-05 season. James and the deeper bench should prove to be the difference.
CAVS in 7
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(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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