Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
09/08/2007 - Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ken Griffey Jr. hit career home run No. 593 and finished with three RBI, guiding the Cincinnati Reds to an 11-4 rout of the Milwaukee Brewers in the first of a three-game set at Great American Ball Park.
Josh Hamilton went 4-for-5 with three runs scored, a homer and a pair of RBI for the Reds, who have won two straight after dropping five in a row.
Bronson Arroyo (8-14) tossed 7 2/3 quality innings, yielding three runs on five hits with eight strikeouts.
Dave Bush (11-10), on the other hand, was battered for eight runs over just one-plus innings for Milwaukee, which remains in a tie for first in the NL Central after the Cubs fell to the Pirates Friday.
Prince Fielder hit his NL-leading 42nd homer in defeat.
The Reds put up six runs in the first inning to assume immediate command. Cincinnati quickly put runners on the corners with nobody out, and Griffey brought the first run in with a single to right. Brandon Phillips then reached safely on a fielder's choice before Adam Dunn singled in Alex Gonzalez for a 2-0 edge. Edwin Encarnacion followed with a two-run base hit a batter later, and Joey Votto's subsequent double scored two more to cap the surge.
Griffey upped the lead to 8-0 in the second with a majestic two-run homer to right, the 593rd of his career.
The offensive outburst continued in the third, as Hamilton drove in a run with a base hit to center, then moved to second on a throwing error. Gonzalez stepped in next and hit a double for a 10-0 Reds lead.
Fielder got the Brewers on the board with a leadoff homer in the fifth, and Craig Counsell added a pinch-hit RBI single later in the frame to make it 10-2. Mike Rivera then hit a two-out, solo homer in the eighth for Milwaukee.
Hamilton's solo shot in the bottom of the eighth upped the Reds advantage to nine runs, and Joe Dillon capped the scoring in the ninth with an RBI single.
Game Notes
Reds catcher Ryan Jorgensen has received a 50-game suspension for violating Major League Baseball's Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program...The Baltimore Orioles purchased right-handed relief pitcher Victor Santos from the Reds for cash on Friday...The Brewers have lost seven of eight on the road, and are now 26-43 away from home this season...Brewers manager Ned Yost was ejected in the third arguing balls and strikes...This was Bush's shortest start of his career. He is 0-1 with an 18.37 ERA in three starts versus the Reds this year.
<< Trio leads suspended event in Arkansas
Rogers, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kristy McPherson, formerly of The Golf Channel's
"Big Break" television show, Teresa Lu and Katherine Hull all shot rounds of
six-under 66 on Friday to share the lead during the suspended first round of
the ina
<< Phillies' Rowand leaves game against Florida
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Philadelphia Phillies center fielder Aaron
Rowand left the team's game against the Florida Marlins on Friday with an
undisclosed injury.
Rowand left the game after the fourth inning and was replaced
<< MLB postseason tiebreaker sites determined
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Major League Baseball conducted a series of
coin tosses Friday to determine the sites for various potential two-team
tiebreakers that would impact the 2007 postseason.
This was the first series of
<< Oklahoma State's Cooper leaves school
Stillwater, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Oklahoma State announced Friday that center
Kenny Cooper has left the University and plans to transfer.
Cooper started 11 games for the Cowboys last season and averaged 4.7 points
and 3.1 rebounds per ga
Wilson helps Pirates pound Cubs >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tom Gorzelanny surrendered one run over
seven solid innings, and the Pittsburgh Pirates pounded the Chicago Cubs, 6-1,
in the first of a three-game series at PNC Park.
Gorzelanny (14-7), unbeaten in
Olivo powers Fish past Phils >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Miguel Olivo went 2-for-3 with a solo
homer, two RBI and two runs scored as the Florida Marlins downed the
Philadelphia Phillies, 6-3, to open a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park.
Cody R
Busch rules Richmond from start to finish >>
Richmond, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kyle Busch won Friday night's Emerson Radio
250 at the Richmond Internationals Raceway leading all but 25 laps. The No.5
Chevrolet crossed the finish line 0.461 seconds ahead of Carl Edwards.
The victory
Granderson makes history as Tigers beat Mariners >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Curtis Granderson made major league history by
belting his 20th homer of the season as Detroit downed Seattle, 6-1, in the
opener of a crucial three-game set at Comerica Park.
With the home run, Granderso
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting