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07/27/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After stumbling out of the gate to begin the second half, the Dodgers have finally started to turn things around. It's a good thing, because the National League West-leading Padres have had no such troubles since the All-Star break.
Los Angeles will be trying to close the gap with San Diego, starting tonight with the opener of a three-game series at Petco Park.
The Dodgers lost their first six games to begin the second half, but have won four of five since. That has them six games behind the first-place Padres.
Los Angeles took three of four from the Mets over the weekend despite scoring just seven runs. Russell Martin drove in the lone run in Sunday's 1-0 triumph, backing Clayton Kershaw's eight scoreless innings in which he gave up seven hits with one walk.
"Clayton is something special," said Dodger's skipper Joe Torre. "He stays focused and knows how to pitch under pressure. He's learning to pitch instead of overpowering people."
Kenley Jansen earned his first career save in his second big league outing by retiring the side in order in the ninth.
Chad Billingsley started the Dodgers' recent stretch by beating the Giants on Wednesday. The right-hander hurled the second shutout of his career in that one, a five-hitter in which he gave up two walks and struck out three.
"I stuck with my game plan and stayed down in the zone," Billingsley told Los Angeles' website. "I always try to do that, but some days it just doesn't happen."
Billingsley is 8-5 with a 4.22 earned run average on the season and 9-4 with a 2.51 ERA in 19 career games (15 starts) versus the Padres. The 26-year-old beat them on May 16 with 7 1/3 scoreless innings, yielding four hits and a walk to go along with six strikeouts.
Jon Garland will try to prevent Billingsley and the Dodgers from getting closer to the Padres in the standings. The right-hander is coming off a no- decision in Atlanta on Wednesday as he allowed four runs on six hits with a walk over five innings.
Garland has enjoyed Petco Park so far this year, going 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA in 10 starts at home. He got a no-decision versus the Dodgers as the hosting pitcher May 14 after allowing two runs over six innings. He then beat Los Angeles five days later on the road despite getting charged with four runs over five innings.
In his career versus the Dodgers, who he went 3-2 with a 2.72 ERA in six starts with last year, Garland is 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA.
The Padres have won eight of 10 since the All-Star break and return home after a 4-2 road trip. That trek was capped on Sunday with a 6-3 victory, capping a three-game sweep for San Diego.
Chris Denorfia and Adrian Gonzalez both homered for the Padres. Denorfia's home run was is sixth in 11 games, a span in which he is hitting .341 (14- for-41) with 12 RBI.
Wade LeBlanc got the victory on Sunday, yielding three runs over six innings to earn his first win since June 12.
"The big thing was establishing strike one later in the game," LeBlanc said. "It takes away some of their aggressiveness."
At 58-39, the Padres are 19 games over .500 for the first time since the conclusion of the 1998 season, which also marks their last World Series appearance.
Los Angeles has won four of five over the Padres this year, including a three- game sweep at Petco Park from May 14-16.
<< Shields and Verlander square off at the Trop
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After being on the receiving end of several no-hitters over
the past year, the Tampa Bay Rays finally got one of their own last night.
Fresh off Matt Garza's pitching gem, the Rays will attempt to pin an eighth
consecutive
<< Lee goes for Rangers in opener with A's
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cliff Lee only has one victory since joining the Rangers by
way of a trade, but the club is expecting many more down the road.
Lee will try to build off that win this evening when Texas begins a three-game
series versus th
<< Twins aim to continue offensive onslaught in Kansas City
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins have been scoring runs in bunches
during a current three-game winning streak. With the way Carl Pavano has
pitched of late, the American League Central contenders may not need such an
offensive outburst wh
<< Montana to play at Tennessee in 2011
Missoula, MT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The University of Montana football team will
open its 2011 season with a game at the University of Tennessee.
The matchup, scheduled for Sept. 3, is the first between the visitors from the
Big Sky Conference a
Resurgent Phils to begin home set with Diamondbacks >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies are starting to play like the
team that won back-to-back National League titles. Tonight they shoot for a
sixth straight win when they open a three-game series against the Arizona
Diamondbacks at Cit
Cubs' Lilly to make possible showcase start against Astros >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Slumping lefty Ted Lilly faces a team against which he's
had career-long success tonight, when the Chicago Cubs meet the Houston Astros
in the second test of a three-game series at Minute Maid Park.
In Monday's opener, Rya
Reds seek revenge in clash with streaking Brewers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Edinson Volquez aims to start another Cincinnati win streak
when the Reds visit Miller Park tonight for the second test of a four-game
series with the Milwaukee Brewers.
Cincinnati had beaten the Brewers six straight times
White Sox put home streak on line against Mariners >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago White Sox shoot for their ninth straight home
win this evening, when they continue their four-game series against the
Seattle Mariners at U.S. Cellular Field,
After a 4-6 road trip, Chicago returned to the Wind
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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