Another Muller starring in World Cup for Germany

Soccer Betting Lines

06/28/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Thomas Muller made his international debut for Germany just three months ago, but the 20-year-old is already being compared to the country's most prolific striker. And it's not just because they share the same last name.

Gerd Muller, no relation to Thomas, retired from international soccer 36 years ago after scoring the winning goal in West Germany's 2-1 win over the Netherlands in the 1974 World Cup final.

Gerd's match-winner was the last of his 14 World Cup goals, a record broken by Brazil's Ronaldo in 2006, and he scored an incredible 68 career goals in just 62 international games.

Thomas certainly won't equal that record of averaging more than a goal a game, but through four FIFA World Cup matches in South Africa, Germany's new star has three goals and three assists.

Thomas evoked more comparisons to his namesake when he got the No. 13 jersey for the World Cup, after captain Michael Ballack was ruled out with an injury. Gerd had the same number in the 1970 and 1974 World Cups.

Thomas reminded English fans of the legendary Gerd on Sunday, when he scored a pair of goals and added an assist in a 4-1 win that sent Germany into the last eight.

Gerd scored the match-winner against England in overtime of the 1970 World Cup quarterfinals and Muller scored both of his goals in the second half Sunday.

Thomas became the youngest player to score two goals in a game in the round of 16 or later since Brazil's Pele scored twice in the 1958 World Cup final.

"It's unbelievable to think that he is still only 20 years old," Germany coach Joachim Loew said of his young star.

Thomas made just his third appearance for Germany when he opened the World Cup as a starter, and he rewarded Loew by assisting on the first goal of a 4-1 win over Australia. Muller added his first international goal in the second half.

Then, in a must-win match against Ghana in the last game of group play, Muller assisted on Mesut Ozil's game-winner in the 60th minute of a 1-0 win.

He began his performance against England with another assist to Podolski, then finished two counter attacks in the second half.

On the first goal, Muller played a long outlet to start the break, and Bastian Schweinsteiger later returned the pass for Thomas to convert at the near post.

Minutes later, the phenom made an 80-yard sprint to offer an option for Ozil, then buried his second goal with a relatively easy finish from inside the area.

"Thomas has a lot of quality and is fantastic in front of goal," Loew said.

Germany has filtered a lot of play through Muller, and with the results he can produce, it is easy to understand why. In addition to being deadly in front of goal, he differentiates himself from other strikers with his wing play.

Mature as a player and person, Muller is focused on Saturday's quarterfinal match with Argentina, against whom he debuted in a friendly a few months ago. He knows what he's done so far is irrelevant in respect to the upcoming match, and believes Germany can continue its run in the tournament.

"Everything is possible now. We can beat anyone if we play to the best of our ability," he said. "We are focused on our goal at this tournament and I have left some space in my trophy cabinet at home."

Even if it doesn't include a World Cup winners' medal, it could very well have the tournament's Best Young Player Award in it in a few weeks.

And with a shot at playing in at least two more World Cups, Thomas could stand alongside Gerd as an equal before his career is over.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.